Ask Renee | Market · 4 min read
Is the market shifting toward buyers or sellers this season?
I get some version of this question every week, usually from someone who just read a headline that contradicts the headline they read last month.
Here is the honest answer. Markets do not flip like a light switch. They drift. And you can watch the drift happen if you know which four numbers to follow.
The four numbers that actually tell you
Months of inventory. This measures how long it would take to sell every home currently listed if no new homes came on the market. Under three months favors sellers. Over six months favors buyers. Anything in between is a balanced market. This is the single most reliable indicator we have.
Days on market. How long the average home sits before going under contract. When that number climbs, buyers have time to think, compare and negotiate. When it falls, they are making decisions in a weekend.
The close to list price ratio. If homes are closing at 100 percent of asking or above, sellers are setting the terms. As that number slips below asking, leverage is moving across the table.
Concessions. This is the quiet one, and the one most reports overlook. Sellers can hold their price and still give ground by paying closing costs, funding a rate buydown or covering repairs. Two homes can sell for the same number on paper while one seller gave up thousands more than the other. When concessions become common, the market has already shifted, whether or not prices show it yet.
Where we stand right now
Across the Denver metro, the market is close to balanced, with a modest advantage to buyers.
Inventory has climbed to its highest level in years. Prices are not falling, but they are no longer climbing quickly either, and flat prices paired with rising inventory is exactly what stretches out days on market. Homes are still closing near their asking price, yet sellers are contributing to closing costs and rate buydowns far more often than they were two years ago.
Translated: buyers have real negotiating room for the first time in a long while, and sellers who price correctly are still selling well.
The exception nobody talks about
Condition now matters more than it has in years.
Buyers today are checking the age of the water heater and asking about the roof before they walk into the kitchen. Homes that are updated and well maintained are still moving quickly and holding their price. Homes with deferred maintenance are sitting, and buyers are pricing that work into their offers with confidence.
So the answer to “buyers or sellers” depends less on the calendar than on the house itself. In the same neighborhood, on the same week, a move in ready home can be in a seller’s market while the fixer three doors down is firmly in a buyer’s market.
If you are selling
Price it right the first week. In a market with this much inventory, the strategy of pricing high and adjusting later costs you real money, because the buyers who would have paid your number have already toured four other homes. Put your budget into condition and presentation rather than into a cushion for negotiation.
If you are buying
You have leverage you did not have in 2021. Use it thoughtfully. Ask for a rate buydown, request repairs, and do not feel rushed into waiving inspection. Just be realistic about the truly turnkey homes in the best locations, because those still draw competition.
The number that matters most
Metro wide statistics make for interesting reading, but no one lives in the metro average. Castle Pines does not behave like Parker, and a $1.2 million home in Highlands Ranch does not behave like a $600,000 home two miles away.
Before you make a decision, look at your price range, in your neighborhood, in the last sixty days. That is the only market you are actually in.
If you would like those numbers for your street, just ask. I am happy to pull them for you, with no obligation and no drip campaign.
Questions about your own situation? That conversation is free and I’ll tell you the truth.
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